The day begins with the Green Bay Packers meeting the Detroit Lions in what should be a competitive NFC North matchup. That’s followed by Washington at Dallas, with the San Francisco 49ers meeting the Seattle Seahawks in a NFC West divisional battle.
Please join me as I share my best bets for all three Thanksgiving Day NFL games for Thursday, November 22.
Thanksgiving Day Best Bets
- Packers @ Lions Under 47.5 (-110) DraftKings
- Commanders @ Dallas Under 48.5 (-110) Caesars
- Brock Purdy Over 1.5 TD passes (-109) BetRivers
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions 12:30 p.m.
The Detroit Lions playing on Turkey Day is Thanksgiving, and they begin the day with a classic NFC North matchup with the Green Bay Packers.
The Lions are a -7.5 (-110) favorite with a 47.5 (-110) total at DraftKings. Most other sportsbooks have the same number and vig on the spread, but some major sportsbooks offer 47-point totals at -110.
The best bet for this matchup is the Under 47.5 (-112) at Draftkings. Green Bay plays very good passing defense, forcing Detroit to run the football. Two things should happen: the clock will grind, and Detroit won’t be able to run up a big score.
Green Bay running back Aaron Jones injured his ankle in Week 11 and is questionable. That will hurt the Packers’ offense and keep this contest Under the total.
Best Bet: Under 47.5 (-110) at DraftKings MD.
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys 4:30
Dallas is also a Thanksgiving Day staple, and they are a -10.5 (-110) favorite with a 48.5 point total when the two NFC East rivals meet at 4:30 p.m. at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
This matchup is a tale of two teams trending in opposite directions. Washington has dropped two straight and four of their last five, but Commanders quarterback Sam Howell leads the NFL in passing yards.
Dallas has won two straight and four of their last five. They score the second-most points per game while allowing 20 points or less in four of their previous five.
The Under 48.5 (-110) at Caesars is the play here. The short week favors Dallas, but the spread is too many to make that bet. 48.5 is a comfortable margin above several key numbers, and I don’t expect a big scoring game between two of the better defenses in the NFL in a divisional game.
Best Bet: Under 48.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook Maryland
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
The turkey hangover should be in full effect for the nightcap of a great day of NFL football. The San Francisco 49ers travel to Seattle for an NFC West matchup at 8:30 p.m. with the Seahawks.
We’re going with a passing prop for this late-night matchup and take 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy to throw Over 1.5 TD passes. Seattle allows the 21st-most passing yards per game while also surrendering 1.3 scoring strikes per contest.
Purdy has thrown three TD passes in each of his last two, and he has several weapons at his disposal to make this prop a reality. Look for Purdy to throw early and often and nail this prop by the end of the first half.
Best Bet: Brock Purdy Over 1.5 TD passes(-109) at BetRivers Maryland
