Morgan State hopes to end a two-game losing streak while Virginia is coming off a blowout away loss at Memphis.
Please join me as I break this one down the college basketball odds with a free college basketball pick for Morgan State vs. Virginia on Wednesday, December 27.
Morgan State vs. Virginia Best Bet
If there were ever a get-right spot for Virginia, welcoming Morgan State to the John Paul Jones Arena on Wednesday would be it. The Cavaliers are coming off a 77-54 away loss to Memphis and haven’t shot the ball well at all to start their season.
The Cavaliers have ridden the struggle bus recently from beyond the arc; they made just 14% of their triple attempts in a slim two-point home victory over Northeastern and followed that up with an improved 21% from downtown against Memphis.
The loss to the Tigers dropped Virginia out of the top 25 for the first time this season, and they need a bounce-back game before heading to Notre Dame on Saturday for an ACC matchup with the Fighting Irish.
Morgan State is 4-7 on the season and has dropped two straight and three of their last five. Their only victories this season besides their home victory over UMBC have come against non-ranked opponents, are 0-6 as the away side, and haven’t shot the ball particularly well from anywhere.
131.5 points is too many for this matchup.
Morgan State is one of the least experienced programs, with one of the highest turnover percentages nationally due to its lightning-fast tempo. Virginia is one of the top defensive groups nationally and will be too much for the offensively challenged Bears to deal with. Morgan State can score the basketball.
Still, they scored 109 combined points in away losses to similar defenses at Arizona (59) and at BYU. We should expect the same offensive production on Wednesday.
Finally, Virginia is a defensive first, slow-tempo program in the throes of a horrible shooting slump. That could carry over to Wednesday’s matchup with the Bears. Still, the Cavaliers’ inability to drain the three-ball and slow tempo is why Virginia’s Over/Under record is 2-8-0 to the Under over their last 10 matchups. Play Under 131.5 (-110) at Caesars Maryland.
My Best Bet: Under 131.5 (-110) at Caesars
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