Join me as I break down the odds and share a prediction and a best bet for the Browns vs. Ravens on Sunday, November 12.
Browns vs. Ravens Odds Analysis
There was plenty of line movement after the bookmakers opened Baltimore as a -5.5 favorite that quickly moved to -6.0 at most shops. The vig did remain the same standard at -110 at BetMGM, but FanDuel has the same number but -105 odds.
PointsBet has Baltimore -6.5 (-105), and that’s a good number at a good price, but I’m unsure of how long that number will remain. FanDuel has -6.0 (-105), and the vig is much cheaper than at some other Maryland sportsbooks.
FanDuel Maryland opened the total at 38.5 (-105), but the number has shifted to 37.5 (-112). The $7 price on the vigorish is a ridiculous price hike on the Over markets. Caesars and BetMGM both have Over 37.5 (-110), which is why we line shop.
Browns vs. Ravens Best Bet
Sunday’s AFC North battle is a rematch of their Week 4 meeting in Cleveland. Baltimore won that game 27-3, but Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson didn’t dress, and the Cleveland offense was an absolute mess with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center.
Cleveland allows the fewest total yards and third-fewest points per game. As Arizona found out last week, the Browns defense can be relentless. They pitched a shutout with seven sacks, a pair of interceptions, and a fumble recovery in their 27-0 home victory over the Cardinals.
Baltimore’s defense ranks second in total yards with the fewest points surrendered per game. They’ve held offenses to fewer than nine points in four of their nine contests and seem to batter weaker offenses like Cleveland.
The Ravens offense is the better of the two and seems to improve each week. Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson is becoming a more accomplished passer and has thrown nine scoring strikes with only three interceptions on 253 attempts. He threw a pair of those TD passes in Cleveland, and while he doesn’t run as much as in previous seasons, his feet remain a weapon.
The Browns offense sputters and relies on short-fields brought on by their defense. Watson isn’t remotely close to the quarterback he was in Houston and the Browns’ offense struggles because of this. He’s missed time with tendonitis in his throwing arm but threw a pair of TD passes last week against Arizona.
I like the Ravens to cover the -6.0 (-105) on Sunday. They are 6-3 ATS overall and 3-1 ATS at home. Baltimore beats up on weaker offenses, such as what Cleveland displays, and the Browns’ inability to score the football on the road is why they are 1-2-0 as the away team and 1-2-0 ATS wearing the visitors’ jerseys. Take Baltimore -6.0 (-105) at FanDuel sportsbook.
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