He’ll face stiff competition from the likes of Spaniard and world No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz (+185), Russian Daniil Medvedev, and a pair of Americans, including Maryland native Frances Tiafoe, who also has a shot at dethroning Djokovic.
BetMGM Maryland 2024 Australian Open Futures
This is an interesting leaderboard, and any of these players could win the 2024 Australian Open. Here are the top 10 on the BetMGM Maryland leaderboard as of Monday, October 30.
|
Player |
Country |
Australian Open Odds |
|---|---|---|
|
Novak Djokovic |
Serbia |
+110 |
|
Carlos Alcaraz |
Spain |
+185 |
|
Daniil Medvedev |
Russia |
+600 |
|
Jannik Sinner |
Italy |
+1100 |
|
Rafael Nadal |
Spain |
+1600 |
|
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
Greece |
+2000 |
|
Alexander Zverev |
Germany |
+2200 |
|
Holger Rune |
Denmark |
+2500 |
|
Taylor Fritz |
USA |
+2500 |
|
Ben Shelton |
USA |
+2500 |
The Favorites
Novak Djokovic
As previously mentioned, Djokovic has won this tourney a record ten times, and the BetMGM betting odds reflect this. He won this event last season and reached the final of each of the four Grand Slam events, with victories at the French Open and US Open. He lost a tough, five-set Wimbledon final to Alcaraz.
There isn’t much value at +110, but that could change depending on how he fares the rest of this season.
Carlos Alcaraz
Spain’s Carlos Alcaraz has only been on tour for a couple of years but has made quite an impact, winning two Grand Slam titles (2022 US Open, 2023 Wimbledon), and for all of his success, the World No. 2 has only reached the third round of this event in two attempts.
Alcaraz skipped last year’s event with an injury but has the game to win and no points to defend. He could make a deep run to beat Djokovic on the tennis legend’s second favorite surface (grass), but getting nearly 2-1 might not be enough to make this wager at this time.
Daniil Medvedev
Russian Daniil Medvedev has reached eight hardcourt finals in 2023 and is a two-time AO finalist. The World No. 3 has fired the fifth-most aces and is widely considered to be the second-best hardcourt player in the world behind Djokovic.
Medvedev has the second-best break-of-serve rate in the game, and 6-1 for a two-time finalist isn’t a bad price to pay.
The Contenders
Italy’s Jannik Sinner and German Alexander Zverev have a good chance at making a deep run at the 2024 Australian Open and are sneaky contenders to win the championship.
Sinner reached the quarters of last year’s event before falling to Tsitsipas in five sets, but Sinner has improved his serve and is working on his fitness with the third-best break-of-serve rate in the game.
Zverev took his time recovering from a nasty leg injury that cost him much of his 2022 season. The German reached the semifinals here in 2020 and could make some noise again. Zverev fell in the second round of the 2022 event but won a hardcourt title in September.
The Americans
It’s been a while since we’ve seen this many Americans among the favorites to win this event, and we’ll look at a few with the best chance of making a huge run Down Under.
Taylor Fritz has failed to pass the Round of 16 at this event in eight attempts. Although he has fired the second-most aces on tour, his return game hasn’t been strong enough to reach the fifth round.
Ben Shelton took the tour by storm this past year, reaching the 2022 Australian Open quarterfinals and the US Open semifinals. Sandwiched in between, there were 17 consecutive events without back-to-back wins. He has one of the biggest serves, but his return game needs work to win this event.
Frances Tiafoe (+5000) is interesting, but his best result here was a quarterfinal appearance in 2019. The Maryland native has been just 2-6 on hardcourts since losing to Shelton in the US Open quarters, and if Tiafoe does win a major, it likely won’t be this one.
One American player I am interested in is Tommy Paul (+6600). That is a ridiculous price for a player who reached the semis here in 2023 and has hard-court victories over Alcaraz, Shelton, and Fritz. The bouncy type of surface used at Melbourne Park suits Paul’s game, and he could go a long way here.
Handicapping the Rest of the Field
Holger Rune has the game to win, but he doesn’t have the temperament or fitness to beat Djokovic Down Under. His best result was the fourth round in 2023, and maybe hiring Boris Becker to coach him might produce some fruit, just not here.
Stefanos Tsitsipas reached the 2023 Final and has gone as far as the semis three additional times. He can beat everyone on the field and has reached the French Open final. He has the experience to win, but +2000 isn’t a good enough price for this wager.
Poland’s Hubert Hurcacz (+5000) is mispriced here. The Pole has one of the best serves in the business with a top-50 break rate. He reached the fourth round last year, and I’m not saying he will win, but he should at least be in the top ten and would provide big value if he wins.
Tennis legend Rafael Nadal has won this event twice, but he got hurt last spring and hasn’t played since. He will always be a contender at any event, but +1600 isn’t a good enough price.
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