Toronto is 4th in the American League East standings and 10 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays. Baltimore is 2nd in the AL East and just four games behind the Rays after beating Toronto Tuesday night 11-6 in Game 1 of this series.
The Blue Jays probable starting pitcher for Wednesday is righty Jose Berrios. The Orioles plan on countering with right-hander Kyle Bradish.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are really picking up the pace this season after a bit of a slow start. They’ve won seven of their last 10 contests and are looking to get even with the Orioles after they swept them in a home series back in May.
Bo Bichette is definitely leading the pack for Toronto, topping multiple offensive categories and currently sitting at 4th place in batting average across all of baseball. Matt Chapman is also doing well, leading the team in doubles and coming in 3rd for total bases. Vladimir Guerrero isn’t far behind, with the second most home runs and RBI for the team, and Whit Merrifield is leading in stolen bases with 17.
Berrios (6-4, 3.61) has been truly impressive in his past five starts, only giving up seven earned runs in the last 31.1 innings on the mound. He’s been hitting some career lows in home runs and walks per nine, but his xFIP is actually 0.50 runs higher than his ERA, which could mean that we should expect some regression in the future.
Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore team is currently on a roll with four consecutive wins entering Tuesday and has been holding the 2nd spot in the AL East for a major part of the season. Their domination over Toronto hopefully continues as they gear up for their Wednesday game.
OF Austin Hayes is leading Baltimore in batting average, hits and is tied for second on the Orioles in runs scored. 1B Ryan Mountcastle is the one to watch out for with 11 home runs, while MVP candidate C Adley Rutschman leads the Orioles in walks and OBP and is second on the team in batting average.
Baltimore’s pitcher Bradish (2-2, 4.25) has been performing exceptionally well, having only given up twelve earned runs in his last 27.1 frames on the mound. His xFIP is slightly lower than his ERA, indicating that positive regression could be on the cards. What’s more, Bradish is currently leading the charge with the fewest home runs and walks per nine during his brief MLB career.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Best Bet: Orioles ML +100
The Orioles are +100 at home, and my best bet is the Orioles +100 at DraftKings.
If you had wagered $100 on each of Bradish’s 11 starts, you would have won +151. Bradish has been doing a great job keeping Baltimore in the game and deserves credit for his performance. The only downside is that the Baltimore offense has been unable to score more than four runs on average per Bradish start.
Bradish has been excellent at home, allowing just two earned runs in his last three starts at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. He’ll be facing a tough Toronto offense that’s ranked fourth on the away team and on a four-game winning streak.
However, Bradish has solid home splits and should be able to handle the big bats of Toronto. While Berrios has been good this season, his xFIP is higher than his ERA. The Orioles bats are better than average at home and should be able to score enough to secure a win in this game.
Best Bet: Orioles ML +100
